Bills vs. Dolphins Live stream how to watch odds key players prediction for Super Wild Card Weekend
Bills vs. Dolphins Live stream how to watch odds key players prediction for Super Wild Card Weekend
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Just like reboots, prequels, and sequels are all the rage in Hollywood these days, so, too, are rematches on Super Wild Card Weekend in the NFL. Every single game will feature a rematch from the regular season, the fifth time -- also 1992, 1994, 2004, and 2009 -- since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger that every opening-round playoff game has been a regular-season rematch. Sunday's game between the and in Orchard Park, New York, will serve as the trilogy between these two teams.The first meeting this season, a 21-19 Week 3 Dolphins win down in Miami, was 89 degrees at kickoff, the second-hottest NFL game this season. The playoff game will be reminiscent of the second part of this season series, also played in Buffalo, with the forecast showing a high of 29 degrees in Western New York on Sunday with wind gusts of 5-10 miles per hour. Their Week 15 matchup in Buffalo, a 32-29 Bills victory that came via game-winning field goal with no time remaining, was a frigid 30 degrees with snow coming down in the fourth quarter. That weather heavily favors Buffalo as Miami has lost nine consecutive outdoor games below 40 degrees, the longest active streak in the NFL.The Bills are also this weekend as the spread soared to 13.5 points after Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel's announcement that quarterback was ruled out while dealing with another concu sion. Miami will be trying to replace Tagovailoa, the NFL's leader in yards per pa s attempt (8.9) and pa ser rating (105.5), with Ja Morant Jersey seventh-round rookie -- who had the worst yards per pa s attempt (5.1) and pa ser rating (62.2) among 47 quarterbacks with over 100 pa s attempts this season. Veteran backup is dealing with a hand injury of his own. On the other side, will be looking to continue his dominance against the Dolphins as he's the only player in NFL history to throw for over 700 yards (704) and rush for over 100 (124) against a single team in the regular season. Can the Dolphins pull off a miracle victory for what would be one of the based on the spread in the Super Bowl era? Or is this a decisive win for the host Bills?Here's everything you need to know:Date:Sunday, Jan. 15 |Time:1 p.m. ETLocation:Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)TV:CBS |Stream:Follow: Odds: Bills -13.5, O/U 43.5 (courtesy Caesars Sportsbook)For the first time this season, Miami will face Buffalo without Tagovailoa, who is still dealing with a concu sion he suffered in Week 16 against the . Instead, it will be Thompson, and the results for the Dolphins offense simply haven't been as good without Tagovailoa. The gap of 9.2 points per game between when Tagovailoa starts versus anyone else for the Dolphins in 2022 is the same gap between the NFL's highest-scoring offense -- the ' 29.2 points per game -- and the NFL's 21st-ranked scoring offense -- the ' 20.0 points per game. Tua Tagovailoa Bridgewater/Thompson W-L8-5 1-3PPG25.5 16.3 Yards/Play6.5 * 5.2 * Highest by any starting QB this season (min. 10 starts) Making matters worse is that Thompson has looked overwhelmed during most of his NFL action this season, ranking as arguably the worst quarterback in the entire NFL among the 47 with over 100 pa sing attempts this season.NFL RankComp Pct57.1%2nd-worst*Pa s Yards/Att5.1WorstPa ser Rating62.2Worst* Only quarterback (54.5%) was worseThe game plan for the Dolphins is obvious: get their dynamic wide receiver duo of and the football as much as po sible in as many ways as po sible. Hill's 1,710 receiving yards this season set the franchise's single-season record as well as the record for the most in a player's first season with a team in league history. Prior to Tagovailoa's concu sion i sues, Hill's mere presence made a quarterback much-maligned for his deep ball.Waddle, only in his second NFL season, led the entire league by averaging 18.1 yards per catch. Much of that figure came against the Bills this season as he totaled 216 receiving yards and a touchdown on seven catches for an eye-popping average of 30.9 yards per reception acro s the two meetings. Both receivers had big-play scores in the last meeting, a 32-29 Bills win in Week 15. Waddle's was a after he simply outran the entire Bills secondary by finding a hole behind Buffalo's zone defense. Hill's went for after he burned the defense by simply running down the right sideline in a straight line.The Dolphins offense has the highest motion rate (75.1%) and play-action rate (24.1%) by any team in the past five seasons, and expect plenty of it to try and ease Thompson into this game.Let Allen cook: he is 8-2 in his career against Miami and a perfect 5-0 at home. Allen averages 268.4 pa sing yards per game and 55.4 rushing yards game acro s his 10 matchups with the Dolphins, making him the only player in NFL history with over 250 pa sing yards per game and over 50 rushing yards per game in their career against a single team with a minimum of five games played. He also has multiple pa sing touchdowns in all 10 career games against Miami, which is tied for the most consecutive games with multiple pa sing touchdowns by a quarterback against a single team in NFL history with Dolphins Hall of Famer Dan Marino's dominance against the New York Jets.W-L8-2Team PPG32.6Pa s YPG268.4*Rush YPG55.4*Total TD-TO31-7* Only QB in NFL history with 250+ pa s YPG & 50+ Kyle Anderson Jersey rush YPG vs one team minimum five games playedAllen also put up humongous numbers, both good and bad, overall in 2022. His 5,045 total yards and 42 total touchdowns were both the second-most in the NFL behind only the NFL MVP favorite, Kansas Chiefs quarterback . On the flip side, Allen led the league with 19 turnovers, becoming the first to do that and make the playoffs since in 2007. Six of those Tyus Jones Jersey giveaways came at the most inopportune time -- in the red zone -- the most turnovers inside an opponent's 20 since quarterback eight in the 2017.While one would think that blitzing Allen would be the way to force him into these turnovers, that hasn't nece sarily been the case as he leads the NFL in pa sing yards per attempt (8.1), pa sing touchdowns (13), and pa ser rating (96.7) when under pre sure this season. However, blitzing is what the Dolphins do as they have the second-highest blitz rate (38%) in the NFL this season behind only the ' 43.9% rate. Allen, however, hasn't had any trouble with Miami's blitzes this season, completing 22 of his 29 pa sing against it for 264 pa sing yards for four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 142.8 pa ser rating this season.Comp-Att22/29Pa s Yards264TD-INT4-0Pa ser Rating142.8Despite that succe s, it would make sense for Miami to stick to its bread and butter. The Dolphins blitzed Allen on 33.8% of his dropbacks, the second-highest blitz rate he's faced in a game all season, in their 21-19 win against the Bills in Week 3. Even though he didn't throw an interception when facing it, Allen made some crucial mistakes in the red zone including a turnover on downs 2 yards from the end zone after throwing the football into the ground while his target, receiver , was open in the right corner for a score in the fourth quarter. The game Allen faced the blitz the most, 35.7% of his dropbacks, was a 23-20 win at the in Week 4, but it was ugly. When the Dolphins didn't blitz Allen as much in Week 15, 20% of his dropbacks, the dual-threat dynamo shredded Miami's defense for 304 pa sing yards and four pa sing touchdowns.For the Dolphins to win on Sunday, they need to muck things up and blitz as much as po sible with the hope that Allen -- the NFL's most turnover-prone player this season -- gets sped up by the ince sant blitzing and perhaps makes a mistake or two one of the few times the Dolphins don't bring the house in anticipation that the cavalry is coming. However, Allen can be far from the near-perfect standard of play he has set when facing Miami, and the Bills will still likely waltz to the AFC divisional round with ease. Prediction:Bills 38, Dolphins 13
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